LOGIC Consulting

December 25, 2024

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The UAE’s Economic Journey in 2024

The UAE demonstrated remarkable economic resilience in 2024, navigating global challenges while achieving key milestones across sectors such as energy, technology, and trade. Embracing a vision of diversification and innovation, the country balanced its traditional oil-driven economy with significant investments in non-oil industries, reinforcing its adaptability to dynamic global economic trends. Noteworthy achievements included the UAE’s strides in semiconductor manufacturing, as leading giants Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) and Samsung Electronics Co. explored establishing facilities in the region. With potential investments exceeding $100 billion, these developments demonstrate the UAE’s emergence as a global technology hub. Similarly, Microsoft’s $1.5 billion investment in Abu Dhabi’s G42 emphasized the nation’s commitment to artificial intelligence leadership. On the trade front, the signing of a landmark free trade agreement with Australia promised enhanced collaboration in critical minerals and clean energy.

Some challenges persisted, including a slowdown in the non-oil private sector, where growth reached its lowest rate in nearly three years, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index dropping to 53.7 mid-year—a reflection of global economic pressures.
Additionally, geo-political challenges in the region had a direct impact on the nation’s supply chains and oil & gas trade. Despite these obstacles, the UAE’s strategic investments in technology, energy innovation, and trade partnerships reaffirmed its position as a resilient regional and global leader. The journey ahead, shaped by key economic milestones and challenges, sets the stage for a deeper exploration of the forces driving the UAE's growth in 2024.

REFLECTING ON 2024

Key Economic Milestones and Challenges in the UAE 

NON-OIL SECTOR GROWTH

Non-oil sectors emerged as the backbone of the UAE’s economic growth in 2024, showcasing the success of diversification efforts.

Economic Performance

The following table presents the most recent economic performance indicators for the United Arab Emirates, as detailed in the Quarterly Economic Review issued by the Central Bank of the UAE in September 2024. These figures provide a comprehensive overview of the nation’s economic progress and reflect the latest developments and trends for 2024 across key sectors.

  • GDP Growth: Real GDP grew by 3.4% Y-o-Y in Q1 2024. Non-hydrocarbon GDP grew by 4% Y-o-Y in Q1 2024.
  • Non-oil Sector: Non-oil foreign trade reached AED 669.9 billion in Q1 2024 (141% of GDP).
  • Inflation: Headline inflation at 2.3% Y-o-Y in Q2 2024.
  • Monetary and Financial Markets: Money supply (M1, M2, M3) grew by 12.8%, 16.9%, and 14.7% Y-o-Y in Q2 2024. Policy rate reduced to 4.9% in September 2024.

In addition, the introduction of a 15% minimum top-up tax on large multinational corporations starting January 2025, designed to align with global tax standards and increase non-oil revenues, will be coupled with tax incentives, such as those aimed at fostering R&D activities and a refundable tax credit system to encourage innovation and investment.

Key Driving Sectors that Contributed Significantly to Non-Oil Sector Growth

Construction Sector

The UAE’s construction sector is witnessing significant growth, driven by substantial investments, technological advancements, and a strong commitment to sustainable development. In 2029, the market is anticipated to hit USD 50.40 billion. The federal budget for 2024 allocated AED 64.1 billion (USD 17.5 billion) to key sectors, including infrastructure, housing, and public services. This is complemented by ambitious government initiatives, such as the UAE Energy Strategy 2050, the Masdar City Development Programme, the Sheikh Zayed Housing Program, and the Dubai Tourism Strategy. These programs aim to enhance infrastructure, promote renewable energy adoption, and attract foreign investments, aligning with the nation’s broader economic diversification goals.
Public-private partnerships (PPPs) also play a pivotal role, exemplified by Dubai’s Roads & Transport Authority approving ten projects worth AED 2.5 billion (USD 680 million) under the PPP scheme for 2024–2026. As a result, the construction sector’s real economic output growth is estimated at 4% in 2024 and is projected to reach 4.2% in 2025.

Financial Services Sector

UAE has solidified its position as a regional financial hub, with the financial services sector playing a critical role in driving economic diversification. In the first quarter of 2024, the financial and insurance
activities sector achieved impressive growth, expanding by 7.9% and contributing 13.4% to the country’s non-oil GDP.
The government has implemented a range of strategic initiatives to enhance the financial sector’s infrastructure and regulatory framework, including policies aimed at attracting foreign investments, fostering innovation, and promoting financial inclusion.
Additionally, these efforts have spurred growth in local credit granted to the private sector, which rose by 6% in the first quarter of 2024, further strengthening the financial services sector.
Together, these measures emphasize the UAE’s commitment to creating a favorable business environment and positioning the financial sector as a cornerstone of its economic diversification agenda.

Tourism Sector

The UAE has strategically prioritized its tourism sector as a cornerstone of its economic diversification strategy, rolling out comprehensive initiatives to solidify its global reputation as a premier travel destination. For instance, in the first half of 2024, Dubai welcomed 9.31 million international overnight visitors, marking a 9% increase compared to the 8.55 million arrivals recorded during the same period in 2023, according to data from the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism (DET).

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